Study Projects Sharply Rising Sea Level Risks for Treasure Coast by 2050

A new peer-reviewed study projects sharply rising vulnerability to sea level rise along Florida's low-lying Gulf and Atlantic coastal communities through 2050, with direct relevance for Treasure Coast residents living near the Indian River Lagoon, St. Lucie River, and barrier island shorelines.

The study, published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction in 2024, used principal component analysis to model how Cape Coral — one of Florida's most flood-exposed cities — likely will face compounding risks from tidal inundation, storm surge, and chronic flooding over the next three decades, according to Saba J.A. et al.

While the research focuses on Cape Coral, its methodology and conclusions apply broadly to any low-elevation Florida coastal community, including Martin, St. Lucie, and Indian River counties, where elevations frequently fall below five feet above sea level According to available information,.

Researchers identified infrastructure, housing density, and socioeconomic factors as key drivers of vulnerability — a combination familiar to Treasure Coast planners managing aging drainage systems and rapid population growth.

The study covers the period from 2020 to 2050, a window that encompasses the full build-out of many current Treasure Coast residential developments. Local emergency managers and municipal engineers are encouraged to review the full findings, available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105014.

Residents in flood zone AE or VE designations on the Treasure Coast should consult their current flood insurance policies and local floodplain administrators for guidance on risk mitigation.

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